Magic or Hawks? Celtics will find out playoff opponent Tuesday night
The Boston Celtics know their postseason -- and quest for a second straight NBA Championship -- will start Sunday afternoon at TD Garden. But they don't know if it will be the Orlando Magic or Atlanta Hawks standing in their way when the playoffs tip off.
The Hawks and the Magic will get the NBA Play-In Tournament underway Tuesday night in Orlando, which till tip off at 7:30 p.m. The winner will claim the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference and earn a showdown with the 2-seeded Celtics.
For Boston, it really shouldn't matter who they face in the opening round. The Celtics will have the upper hand on either opponent, even with a potentially hobbled Jaylen Brown. And if Joe Mazzulla opts to rest Brown and his balky right knee, the Celtics will still have more than enough in Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, and Derrick White to beat either the Hawks or the Magic.
But either team will still pose some issues for Boston, albeit very different issues from the other. It's basically pick your poison for the Celtics on Tuesday night: Do they want to face a team that can score but can't defend in the Hawks, or a team that can defend better than anyone but struggles to score in the Magic? A series against the Hawks will turn into a track meet, while a series against the Magic would be a defensive slugfest.
Atlanta and Orlando split their regular-season matchups, though the Magic beat the Hawks on April 8 to essentially lock up the top seed in the Play-In tourney. The Magic won six of their last eight games and nine of their last 12. The Hawks won three straight to end the season, including Sunday's finale against the Magic, and four of their last five.
The Celtics are once again among the favorites to win it all this summer, so it shouldn't make a big difference which team they face in the first round. But it was made clear during the regular season that Boston's path in the playoffs is going to be much more difficult than last summer, and the Magic or Hawks could give the C's a good first-round test.
Celtics vs. Magic
Boston was just 1-2 against the Magic during the regular season, and Orlando has won six of the nine matchups over the last three seasons. They seem to have Boston's number these days.
However, both of the C's loses to Orlando in 2024-25 came without Tatum in the lineup. That included last week when none of Boston's top six players saw the court in a 96-76 loss in Orlando, which was the second leg of a back-to-back for the Celtics.
The Magic won the first matchup on Dec. 23 in Orlando, 108-104, thanks to a dominant third quarter. Boston led by 15 points at halftime, but Orlando outscored the C's 36-21 in the third and went up by as many as 10 points in the fourth quarter. The Celtics were able to cut the lead to one point with under a minute left, but Tristan da Silva drained a three with 9.9 seconds remaining to seal the win for the Magic. Brown led the way for Boston with 35 points, while the Celtics hit just eight of their 32 threes for the night.
Boston's lone win over Orlando came on Jan. 17 at TD Garden, when Tatum led the way with 30 points in a 121-94 victory. The Celtics were feeling it from downtown as they hit 17 of their 37 threes (45.9 percent) that night. All five starters hit at least one three, while Sam Hauser and Al Horford each hit a pair for Boston off the bench.
Overall, the Celtics shot 29.1 percent from three-point range over their three games against Orlando. That's worrisome, though take out the bench game last week and Boston shot 35.7 percent from downtown against the Magic. Still not great, but better. Overall, the Magic let opponents shoot 36.5 percent from three during the regular season.
While their three-point D was 23rd in the NBA, defense is the name of the game for this Magic team. They led the NBA at just 105.5 points allowed per game. (The Celtics were second at 107.2 points allowed per game.) Orlando loves to slow things down and make games a defensive slog, and have the NBA's slowest pace to prove it.
The Magic don't look like much of a threat to Boston offensively, as they finished the season with the 27th-ranked offense in the NBA. But they do have a pair of players who could test the Celtics' second-ranked defense. Paolo Banchero is uber talented and averaged 25.9 points per game this season. Franz Wagner can score in bunches too, after he averaged 24.2 points per game in the regular season. Both would test Boston's wing defense.
But the Celtics were able to hold Banchero to 37.8 percent shooting overall and 22.2 percent from three over two games in the regular season. Wagner dropped 23 points off 9-for-17 shooting in his only game against Boston, but it came against Celtics backups last week.
The Magic can make life miserable for opposing offenses, but the Celtics offense has enough firepower to offset Orlando's stellar defense over a series. Orlando does have a few worrisome scorers, but the Celtics shouldn't have too many issues with the Magic.
Celtics vs. Hawks
The Celtics were also 1-2 against the Hawks during the regular season, as Atlanta won two games at TD Garden.
The Celtics won the first matchup, 123-93, at State Farm Arena on Nov. 4 without the services of Brown. Tatum led the way by scoring 26 of his 28 points in the first half, and had nine assists and six rebounds for the game despite not playing at all in the fourth quarter. Derrick White added 21 points while Payton Pritchard had 18 for Boston in the win.
The Hawks won in Boston a week later, taking an NBA Cup showdown, 117-116, in dramatic fashion on Nov. 12. The Celtics blew a 15-point lead in the second half and then lost on an Onyeka Okongwu tip-in with 6.1 seconds left. Brown scored 37 points for the Celtics, but missed a jumper that would have given Boston a win in its NBA Cup opener.
Dyson Daniels was a monster for Atlanta that game with 28 points, while Jalen Johnson had 18 points, 13 rebounds, and 10 assists for his only triple-double of the season. (The Hawks lost Johnson to a season-ending shoulder injury in late January.)
The Hawks took the third and final matchup at TD Garden on Jan. 18 when they beat the Celtics, 119-115, in overtime. Daniels made a bucket in the final minute of overtime and Okongwu drained a pair of free-throws to seal the win for Atlanta.
Brown led the Celtics with 24 points in that loss, while Tatum had 23 off 7-of-21 shooting. Tatum missed a fadeaway at the end of regulation, and hit just one of his four shots in overtime. The Celtics shot just 28.8 percent from three, connecting on 15 of their 52 attempts from downtown.
For the season, the Celtics shot just 33.6 percent from three against Atlanta.
Brown was the team's leading scorer against the Hawks, averaging 30.5 points off 46.9 percent shooting over his two games. White averaged 24.3 points over his three games against Atlanta, and Tatum averaged 23.7 points while shooting 37.9 percent (but just 31.3 percent from three) over three games against the Hawks.
Daniels is a defensive dynamo for the Hawks and led the NBA at 3.0 steals per game, but he was also their leading scorer against Boston this season at 19.7 points per game. Trae Young averaged only 15.0 points in his two games against the C's during the regular season and shot just 12.5 percent from three, but he's been a thorn in Boston's side in the postseason before. He averaged 29.2 points and 10.2 assists when the two teams met in the first round in 2023 -- also in the 2-7 matchup -- as the Hawks pushed the Celtics to six games.
Young could go off at any moment against the Boston D, and Daniels could be an X-factor because of his defense against Tatum and Brown. But Young is the only big threat on the Atlanta offense, and the defense relies on Daniels coming up with steals. The Hawks could also be shorthanded in the frontcourt if Clint Capela isn't ready to return from a hand injury. (He's already been ruled out for Tuesday's play-in game.)
The Celtics should be able to handle the Hawks in a playoff series, but Atlanta could present a few problems and potentially take a game or two from Boston.
But whether it's the Hawks or the Magic, the Celtics shouldn't have too much of an issue with either potential first-round foe.
